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Why You Should Fade the NFL’s Most Electric RB in Week 2

Alvin Kamara is absurd.

The Saints stud is pure poetry in motion and puts on weekly clinics in production

Still, we’re fading him in Week 2, and so should you.

Why? Because he’s appallingly mis-priced on one particular prop bet — carries.

Don’t get the wrong idea. He’s still going to be a star in Sunday’s game against the Browns. He’s just not going to be carrying a heavy load. He’ll be doing more of this instead:

Rush to Judgement

This line is way off. Kamara is mainly a pass-catching back, not someone who gets heavy carries.

Kamara’s line for rush attempts this week is set at 14.5 at odds of -118 / 1.85 at betonline.ag.

However, he’s never topped 12 carries in his career.

Game Att Yds
1 7 18
2 1 3
3 2 37
4 5 25
5 10 75
6 9 57
7 8 28
8 10 68
9 12 106
10 8 42
11 5 87
12 9 60
13 1 2
14 12 44
15 12 32
16 9 44
2018 Game 1 8 29

The odds imply a 55 percent probability that Kamara will hit the projected mark, yet he’s never come close.

We’re suddenly supposed to believe that the Saints will give him 25 percent more carries than they ever have before? It may happen, but it’s a poor bet.

With that in mind, let’s look at a few players to pit against Kamara in head to head prop bets.

Lamar Miller > Kamara, Carries (-122 / 1.82)

As noted in the linked article above, Lamar Miller is the Texans best back on a very shallow depth chart. Unless he gets injured, he’s probable to hit at least 15 carries.

  • Miller had 20 against the Patriots in Week 1.
  • In 2017, he had 14 or more carries in 11 of 16 games.
  • In 2016, he had 14 or more carries in 12 of 16 games.
  • Did I mention Kamara’s never had more than 12 carries?

I realize the Saints are huge favorites against the Browns, and Kamara still will be heavily involved, as he always is… in the passing game.

Peyton Barber > Kamara, Carries (-122 / 1.82)

Barber is another locked-in starter likely to carry a heavier rushing load than Kamara.

The Bucs No. 1 back handled 19 of the team’s 22 carries for a commanding 86 percent market share. Tampa Bay likes Barber so much that Ronald Jones, their second-round draft pick this year, was a healthy scratch in Week 1.

Don’t pound this one as hard as the Miller bet, as Philadelphia presents a very good run defense. However, the spread is only three points in this game so it should be close, leaving Barber an opportunity to stay involved.

LeSean McCoy > Kamara, Carries (-122 / 1.82)

McCoy is under priced in this area due to a seven-carry outing in a blowout game vs the Ravens in Week 1.

That’s certainly a concern, but there are a few reasons to expect a bounce back in volume.

  • He was a workhorse last year, carrying the rock 14+ times in 11 of 16 games.
  • The Bills are starting rookie QB Nathan Peterman this week.

He’s untested and comes out of college with serious accuracy concerns. Letting him air it out against a ball-hawking Chargers defense which forced the third-most interceptions in the league last year is a recipe for disaster.

The Bills and disasters often go hand in hand, but I’m betting they do everything they can to give the rookie a chance. That means a heavy dose of McCoy.

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