The Seahawks and Cowboys meet on Saturday Night in Dallas in the second wild card weekend matchup, and we’re breaking down the best prop bets for what rates to be a slow-paced, run-heavy affair.
A 43.5 point total in this one reflects the fact that both teams clearly want to lean on the run and their strong defenses.
In such a low-totaled game, it’s no surprise that the Player Props Tool goes against the grain with a lot of overs. The three bets with a 10 rating at the time of writing are all overs, including one we’ll get to shortly.
We wipe the slate clean for the playoffs after a profitable regular season run:
Article picks: 50-27 (65%)
Bet the Prop Overall Record: 337-230 (59%)
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115 @ Bovada)
The Cowboys and Seahawks live off the run; both feature red hot RBs and are facing solid pass defenses. Expect a heavy dose of Chris Carson and Ezekiel Elliott, which will put a cap on overall play volume:
Seattle had the second-most rush attempts in the league this year, while the Cowboys had the 10th most. Conversely, Seattle passed less than any other team, and the Cowboys had the 12th-fewest pass attempts.
Even putting volume aside, Dak Prescott’s struggles against zone defenses are well documented.
- When these two teams met in Week 3, the Seahawks predominantly-zone defense held him to 168 yards on 34 attempts (4.9 YPA).
- In last year’s matchup, he had just 181 yards against Pete Carroll’s unit, a 5.3 YPA well below his career average of 7.4.
- Three weeks ago, it was the Colts confounding Prescott en route to a 206-yard day (5.3 YPA).
In that Week 3 game in Seattle, Bovada set Prescott’s line at 205.5, and he still went well under. Is being at home really worth 40 passing yards for Prescott? The splits suggest not — he’s passed for just 13 yards more per game at home than away (249 to 236).
I don’t see this line moving much, but if it does, I’d still play it down to to 237.5.
Seahawks RB Chris Carson
Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110 @ Bovada)
Sean Koerner is projecting 71 yards for Chris Carson, and that that conservative number makes sense given the game-pace concerns we mentioned.
Still, every week odds makers set a sensible, conservative line for Carson, and every week he obliterates it.
- Over his last eight games, Carson’s average rushing line at Bovada has been set at 69.5 yards
- He’s beat his line on seven of eight occasions by an average margin of 33 yards
- The lone under under saw him fall short by 7.5 yards
While points and yards will be at a premium, Carson should be able to get by on efficiency — he’s put up 357 yards (5.3 YPC) over his last three games, while the Cowboys have given up 335 yards (4.5 YPC) over their last three.
All that said, I wouldn’t want to play this number any higher. However, we are getting a decent price here at -110, and I’d still pay up to -115.
Check out the rest of our picks via The Action Network.