While most offshore books are apparently waiting for camp to open, those living in New Jersey and Nevada have been treated to a steady diet of NFL season-long props over the last few weeks.
Our analysts in the Bet the Prop Slack chat have been hard at work studying these lines and identifying the softest ones to attack. In particular, New Jersey residents and player prop sharps John Lapinski and Jeremy Cohen have been hammering the lines being offered by Ceasars (NV & NJ), Boragata, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetStars, & Bet America (NJ only).
Here, courtesy of John Lapinski, is a table packed with 25 NFL season-long props that we’ve bet so far. I’ll follow up with a few notes on some of our favorites.
Note that some of these lines may have moved from what’s listed here; where applicable, John has noted the new line. We wanted to give our subscribers first crack at these soft lines before putting them out to the public.
25 Season Long Player Props
|Added||Player||Stat||Over/Under||Price||Play||Units||Current O/U||Current Price||Play||Book|
|3/19/2019||Odell Beckham Jr||Rec yds||1100.5||-125||Over||1|
|4/10/2019||JuJu > Antonio Brown||Rec yds||115||2||115||FanDuel|
|4/10/2019||JuJu > Antonio Brown||TDs||175||1||175||FanDuel|
|4/28/2019||Kyler Murray||Pass Yds||3100.5||-120||Over||3||N/A||N/A||N/A||FanDuel|
|6/14/2019||Amari Cooper||Most Rec yds||3500||0.2||3500||BetAmerica|
|6/26/2019||Kyler Murray||Total TDs||20.5||-110||Over||2||N/A||N/A||N/A||PointsBet|
|6/26/2019||Kyler Murray||Pass Yds||3150.5||-110||Over||2||N/A||N/A||N/A||DraftKings|
|6/27/2019||Aaron Jones||Ru Yds||1099.5||-110||Under||1||1085.5||-110||Under||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Kenny Golladay||Rec Yds||1119.5||-110||Under||1||1067.5||-110||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Mike Davis||Ru Yds||461.5||-110||Under||1||422.5||-110||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Geronimo Allison||Rec Yds||799.5||-110||Under||1||799.5||-110||Under||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Nick Chubb||Ru Yds||999.5||-110||Over||1||1079.5||-110||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Stefon Diggs||Rec Yds||999.5||-110||Under||1||999.5||-110||Under||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Adam Thielen||Rec Yds||1212.5||-110||Under||1||1157.5||-110||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Kerryon Johnson||Ru Yds||908.5||-110||Over||1||945.5||-110||Caesars|
|6/27/2019||Tarik Cohen||Total TDs||7.5||-110||Under||1||7.5||-140||Caesars|
|6/28/2019||Derrick Henry||Most Rush Yds||3200||0.4||1700||FanDuel|
|6/28/2019||Carson Wentz||Most Pass Yds||3000||0.2||2300||FanDuel|
|7/14/2019||Carson Wentz||Pass Yds||3628.5||-110||Over||2||3628.5||-110||Over||Caesars|
|7/14/2019||Dak Prescott||Pass Yds||3499.5||-110||Over||1||3499.5||-110||Over||Caesars|
|7/14/2019||Phillip Lindsay||Ru Yds||967.5||-110||Under||1||967.5||-110||Under||Caesars|
|7/14/2019||Kenny Stills||Rec Yds||649.5||-110||Over||1||649.5||-110||Over||Caesars|
|7/15/19||Andrew Luck||Pass Yds||4736.5||-118||Under||3||4736.5||-118||Under||BetStars|
- Kyler Murray overs may be the favorite prop bet among our group of analysts. And that’s saying something from a crew that generally leans unders on any season-long prop. The line keeps creeping up, but Mike Clay, whose projections are usually conservative, pegs Murray at 3,875 passing yards, leaving some value on the table.
- Getting plus odds on Juju Smith-Schuster to have more receiving yards than Antonio Brown might be one of the biggest non-Combine missteps we’ve seen from bookmakers this offseason.
- DJ Moore’s receptions O/U opened at 59.5, and after we pointed out on Twitter why that was an atrocious line, the total jumped by 9 full receptions. I still think he goes over 68.5, but that is a solid line.
DJ Moore's reception prop total has been set at 59.5 recs at Ceasars
-Since 2000, 11 21-year-old rookie WRs have had >50 rec
-As sophomores, that group averaged *81.3 recs*
-Not a single WR went under 59.5 — a 100% hit rate
Barring injury, Moore smashes this number pic.twitter.com/6GzXNVivM1
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) June 29, 2019
- Nick Chubb appears to be wildly undervalued, and John Lapsinki lays out why.
- Kenny Golladay is getting a bit too much love in an offense that will likely look different this year.
- Carson Wentz’s passing yards over is another BTP favorite. If he can stay healthy, he’s a near-lock to beat this number.
- Same goes for Dak Prescott, who has beaten this line in two of three seasons and has a new offensive coordinator who should open things up even more.
- Mike Davis has an awfully high line for a third-string RB.