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NFL NFL Player Props Prop School

A Road Map to Hitting 60% on TE NFL Player Props

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been taking you through each position and digging into the data to find the edges among the different types of NFL player props.

A recap of what we’ve learned so far:

Now let’s take a look at TEs, a betting market that rivals RBs when it comes to inefficiency, making it a position we should be focusing on.

TEs: Mostly Bad and Often Injured

While no position in football beats RBs when it comes to injuries, TEs are close — they report the second-highest injury rate of any position at 4.9%, just behind RBs at 5.2%.

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So it’s no surprise that these two positions are the bottom of the barrel when betting overs. In fact, before accounting for bet type or home-road splits, TEs are the worst overall bet to hit the over, coming in at 40.9% compared to 41.9% for RBs.

Here’s how it looks broken down by prop type and home/away.

Takeaways

  • We’ll get look into the specifics on those striking home-road splits in a moment, but we can see that it is a significant factor at the position, as they hit the over 3.1% more often at home than away. .
  • Overall, betting unders on the position is plainly the way to go. Over a solid sample of 1,167 prop bets over the past two years at Bovada, unders cash at an incredible 59.1%.
  • Efficiency props have a slight edge over volume props, with yardage lines hitting the over about 1.4% more often than receptions.

There’s No Place Like Home

Things polarize even more when we break down each prop by TEs who are home (H) or visiting (V).

Takeaways

  • Those volume woes get even worse on the road with receptions overs hitting at a woeful 38.8%.
  • Conversely,  one of the best NFL player props we can make across all positions is the under on receptions any time a TE is away from home. 

  • Reception Yards unders on visiting TEs are also a great bet historically at 60.1%.
  • If you absolutely must bet the over on a TE, make sure he’s at home and lean towards the yardage total over receptions.

Conclusion

This is a straightforward exercise which we’ll continue to expand upon throughout the season, but the results are telling nonetheless.

By now it should be obvious that we need a compelling reason to bet any over in any situation, and that’s especially true when it comes to TEs. They’re injured too often and are rarely a consistent part of the game plan, making them an ideal target for building your bankroll with boring unders.

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