Bet the Prop
Image default
NFL

The Ultimate RB Cheat Sheet for Season Long NFL Props & 6 Best Bets to Target

Every year, I promise myself I’m going to play fewer season-long NFL props and I fail miserably. While tying up a chunk of your bankroll for four months is not ideal, season-long props are just too much fun and too soft.

But there are a lot of them. We’re going to take much of the legwork out of it with these straightforward cheat sheets for every season-long prop line from BetOnline. These tables should be pretty straightforward, but we’ve included some notes at the bottom of the article with more on the methodology and the source of projections.

We’ve also made these tables in a fully sortable for your perusal — you can find them following the heat-map cheat sheets below.

Let’s jump in with a look at RBs broken down by prop type. Note that these lines are from Friday, August 30th and are obviously subject to change.

Editor’s Note: Our NFL player prop packages are here. Get the early bird price and save — packages starting at just $59.95 for the full season

Rushing Yards

  • Sony Michel’s rushing line looks like the best over bet on the board — his consensus projection is 25.4% greater than the O/U line of 850 rushing yards.
  • BOL is bearish on Kerryon Johnson with 850 yards compared to other books who have it over 1,000 — this could present a strong middling opportunity for bettors with adequate outs.
  • Much the same story with Marlon Mack — his line is inflated to more 1,000 yards at some books, giving you a middling opportunity at this 900 number.
  • We booked Nick Chubb at O999.5 yards back in June, and I’m surprised the number hasn’t moved — here’s why we think it should.
  • I’m out on the unreliable Derrick Henry at that 1,000 number, but if you’re a believer, you have the support of projections experts.
  • Dalvin Cook Over 950 yards looks solid, and we already have his TD line locked in as an official bet.

  • Bookmakers are shorting Derrius Guice, leading to a potentially profitable opportunity for both he and Adrian Peterson, whose projection of 492.2 yards gives him by far the best looking under. The talented Guice will get every opportunity to lead that backfield over the 34-year-old Peterson. I like correlating the Guice over with the Peterson under but prefer the latter.

Receiving Yards

Receptions

  • The RB receptions props show the least value among the five prop types based on these projections.
  • However, this prop type does hit the over about 4% more often than the receiving yardage props at the in-game level, and David Johnson’s line of 55.5 is worth a look if you think Arizona is really bringing the Air Raid attack to the NFL.

Total Rushing & Receiving TDs 

  • Kerryon Johnson’s 27.1% overlay is the best among all the RB props. I’m a huge fan and lean towards the over on 7 TDs, but I don’t trust the Lions coaching staff to hand him the heavy load he deserves.
  • We took the over on Dalvin Cook’s TD total of 7.5, but that was based heavily on a significant scheme change Minnesota which isn’t being weighted enough here; I’d be leaning under on the majority of these.
  • Like his rushing line, Peterson’s TD total looks too high. Feel free to blast that under.
  • Same goes for LeSean McCoy, who only had 3 total TDs last year and now heads into the dreaded age-31 season for RBs. UPDATE: McCoy was cut by the Bills Saturday morning, and this prop may not be available for long.

Official Bets

  • Adrian Peterson Under 700 Rushing Yards (-125)
  • Adrian Peterson Under 5.5 Total Tds (-115)
  • Jordan Howard Under 750 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Dalvin Cook Over 7.5 Total TDs (-115)
  • Dalvin Cook Over 950 Rushing Yards (-145)
  • LeSean McCoy Under 5 Total TDs (-115)

The Ultimate RB Prop Cheat Sheet

Here is the RB cheat sheet in full.

PlayerProp TypeLineProjectionRaw Difference% Difference
Aaron JonesRush & Rec TDs89.61.620.00%
Aaron JonesRush Yards850929.679.69.36%
David MontgomeryRush & Rec TDs77.90.912.86%
David MontgomeryRush Yards825884.459.47.20%
Tarik CohenRush & Rec TDs54.9-0.1-2.00%
Tarik CohenRush & Rec Yards850875.225.22.96%
Adrian PetersonRush & Rec TDs5.53.3-2.2-40.00%
Adrian PetersonRush Yards700492.2-207.8-29.69%
Alvin KamaraReceiving Yards750749.9-0.1-0.01%
Alvin KamaraReceptions81.585.94.45.40%
Alvin KamaraRush Yards850899.249.25.79%
Chris CarsonRush & Rec TDs88.20.22.50%
Chris CarsonRush Yards10001,133.90133.9013.39%
Christian McCaffreyReceiving Yards775821.346.35.97%
Christian McCaffreyReceptions9096.96.97.67%
Christian McCaffreyRush Yards10501,040.60-9.40-0.90%
Dalvin CookRush & Rec TDs7.58.71.216.00%
Dalvin CookRush Yards9501,085.70135.7014.28%
Derrius GuiceRush & Rec TDs5.56.30.814.55%
Damien WilliamsRush Yards825803.6-21.4-2.59%
David JohnsonReceiving Yards500571.371.314.26%
David JohnsonReceptions55.5604.58.11%
David JohnsonRush Yards950992.742.74.49%
David JohnsonRush & Rec TDs12.510.6-1.9-15.20%
Derrick HenryRush Yards10001,180.20180.2018.02%
Derrick HenryRush & Rec TDs10.510.3-0.2-1.90%
Derrius GuiceRush Yards700757.257.28.17%
Todd GurleyRush Yards1000981.1-18.9-1.89%
Devonta FreemanRush Yards850885354.12%
Devonta FreemanRush & Rec TDs7.58.91.418.67%
Ezekiel ElliottRush Yards12501,239.10-10.90-0.87%
Ezekiel ElliottRush & Rec TDs1111.20.21.82%
Frank GoreRush Yards400373.6-26.4-6.60%
Frank GoreRush & Rec TDs3.52.1-1.4-40.00%
James ConnerRush & Rec TDs1211.3-0.7-5.83%
James ConnerRush Yards10001,044.6044.604.46%
James WhiteReceiving TDs4.54.3-0.2-4.44%
James WhiteReceiving Yards650629.4-20.6-3.17%
James WhiteReceptions73.572.5-1-1.36%
Joe MixonRush & Rec TDs99.80.88.89%
Joe MixonRush Yards10001,152.00152.0015.20%
Jordan HowardRush & Rec TDs7.57.500.00%
Jordan HowardRush Yards750657-93-12.40%
Josh JacobsRush & Rec TDs6.581.523.08%
Josh JacobsRush Yards800941.1141.117.64%
Kalen BallageRush & Rec TDs3.53.500.00%
Kalen BallageRush Yards500589.789.717.94%
Kenyan DrakeRush & Rec TDs66.90.915.00%
Kenyan DrakeRush Yards600640.940.96.82%
Kerryon JohnsonRush & Rec TDs78.91.927.14%
Kerryon JohnsonRush Yards8501,059.90209.9024.69%
Le'Veon BellReceiving Yards475503.328.35.96%
Le'Veon BellReceptions60.562.523.31%
Le'Veon BellRush & Rec TDs910111.11%
Le'Veon BellRush Yards10001,070.1070.107.01%
Leonard FournetteRush & Rec TDs9.59.1-0.4-4.21%
Leonard FournetteRush Yards950946-4-0.42%
LeSean McCoyRush & Rec TDs54.3-0.7-14.00%
LeSean McCoyRush Yards600621.321.33.55%
Mark IngramRush & Rec TDs6.57.40.913.85%
Mark IngramRush Yards850911.661.67.25%
Marlon MackRush & Rec TDs7.57.3-0.2-2.67%
Marlon MackRush Yards9001,060.20160.2017.80%
Matt BreidaRush & Rec TDs44.30.37.50%
Matt BreidaRush Yards500524.324.34.86%
Nick ChubbRush & Rec TDs910.71.718.89%
Nick ChubbRush Yards10001,186.90186.9018.69%
Peyon BarberRush & Rec TDs6.55.3-1.2-18.46%
Peyon BarberRush Yards700749.449.47.06%
Phillip LindsayRush & Rec TDs67.21.220.00%
Phillip LindsayRush Yards800861.861.87.72%
Saquon BarkleyRush & Rec TDs12.512.90.43.20%
Saquon BarkleyRush Yards12501,254.204.200.34%
Saquon BarkleyReceptions82.587.34.85.82%
Saquon BarkleyReceiving Yards650700.350.37.74%
Sony MichelRush & Rec TDs8.59.61.112.94%
Sony MichelRush Yards8501,065.90215.9025.40%
Tevin ColemanRush & Rec TDs86.2-1.8-22.50%
Tevin ColemanRush Yards700758588.29%
Todd GurleyReceiving Yards475403.1-71.9-15.14%
Todd GurleyRush & Rec TDs121200.00%

Background

A few quick notes on the cheat sheets.

These lines are from the recently released batch of season-long props at BetOnline. We used this book because it’s among the most accessible for bettors in a variety of jurisdictions. Their lines are surprisingly soft compared to some books whose lines have been out and subject to market forces for months.

Feel free to use the table as a baseline to explore numbers at alternate books.

We compared those betting lines to the “Consensus of Five Sources” projections at Fantasy Pros, which include Mike Clay’s — generally considered the industry standard – as well as CBS Sports, numberFire, FFToday & NFL.com. We wanted to include multiple sources in the hopes of eliminating some of the noise and outliers.

Related posts