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The Ultimate NFL Props QB Cheat Sheet & 6 Bets to Target

Every year, I promise myself I’m going to play fewer season-long NFL props and I fail miserably. While tying up a chunk of your bankroll for four months is not ideal, season-long props are just too much fun and too soft.

But there are a lot of them. We’re going to take much of the legwork out of it with these straightforward cheat sheets for every season-long prop line from BetOnline, and we started with the Ultimate RB Cheat Sheet on the weekend.

These tables should be pretty straightforward, but we’ve included some notes at the bottom of the article with more on the methodology and the source of projections.

We’ve also made these tables in a fully sortable for your perusal — you can find them following the heat-map cheat sheets below.

Editor’s Note: Our NFL player prop packages are now available in weekly & monthly options. Or buy the full season and save 30% — packages starting at just $59.95 for the full season

Passing Yards

  • Pending good health, the overs on passing yards for both Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz look strong. The Bengals were among the lowest-paced teams in the Marvin Lewis era, but their offense should have a shiny new uptempo look under new head coach, the Sean-McVay influenced Zac Taylor.
  • Dak Prescott also has a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore who is likely to play faster as well; plus Prexcott’s pass attempts could increase as long as Ezekiel Elliott holds out.
  • We examined the Nick Foles over earlier in the offseason, and the projections like it even though the line hasn’t moved.
  • Drew Brees fell short of his 4,250-yard line by 258 yards last season. The Saints have an excellent defense and run game, and Brees’ pass attempts have fallen in two straight seasons. The team has also shown that they’ll sit him in Week 17 if they have things locked up, which is a possibility again this year.
  • The Vikings are going to run it a lot this year under a new offensive philosophy. More proof came when Minnesota only kept four WRs on their active roster after cuts. This Kirk Cousins passing line is pretty close, but it’s a definite lean towards the under.

TD Passes

  • We’re bullish on Joe Flacco relative to the market this season. The Broncos new starter has gone over 17 TDs in every season that he’s started 16 games since he was a rookie. Last year, he was on pace for 21 TDs before being pulled for Lamar Jackson. I don’t expect the same thing this year — all reports indicate that second-round rookie Drew Lock is nowhere near ready to start in the NFL, and I expect Flacco to play all 16 games and breeze past this number.
  • The Prescott over looks good as well for the reasons mentioned above, plus the fact that he’s gone over this 21.5 number in each of his three NFL seasons.
  • Battling injuries and ineffectiveness, Marcus Mariota has totaled 11 and 13 TDs over the past two seasons. The Titans offense has looked as brutal as ever in the preseason, and backup Ryan Tannehill is a legitimate threat to start some games this year.

Interceptions

  • Interceptions are largely random and not a favorite prop-betting target of ours, but there does appear to be some big edges relative to projections if you don’t mind the variance.

Rushing Yards

  • Lamar Jackson rushed for 79.7 yards per game in his seven starts as a rookie, a 1,355-yard pace over a full season. He’s unlikely to repeat that, but even with a sharp decline in rushing pace, he can still get there — his rushing stats would essentially have to be cut in half in order for him to miss, and even the conservative fantasy projections have him beating the 755-yard line by 8.58%.

Rushing TDs

I lean over on the over for both Jackson and Josh Allen, who paced for 9.1 and 10.7 respectively as rookies.

Official Picks

I don’t mind betting a few more overs on QBs since they get injured less than other positions.

  • Andy Dalton Over 3,250 passing yards
  • Dak Prescott Over 3,600 Passing Yards
  • Joe Flacco Over 17 TD passes
  • Marcus Mariota Under 18.5 TD passes
  • Lamar Jackson Over 775 rushing yards
  • Lamar Jackson Over 5.5 rushing TDs

The Ultimate QB Cheat Sheet

Here is the QB cheat sheet in full with sortable columns.

PlayerProp TypeLineProjectionRaw Difference% Difference
Nick FolesINTs10.513.5328.57%
Tom BradyINTs8.510.82.327.06%
DeShaun WatsonINTs10.512.41.918.10%
Aaron RodgersINTs6.57.61.116.92%
Andy DaltonPassing Yards32503,745.10495.1015.23%
Lamar JacksonRush TDs5.56.30.814.55%
Carson WentzPassing Yards37504,270.20520.2013.87%
Jared GoffINTs10.511.91.413.33%
Josh AllenRush TDs5.56.20.712.73%
Matt RyanINTs9.510.71.212.63%
Joe FlaccoTD Pass1719.12.112.35%
Joe FlaccoINTs11.512.91.412.17%
Patrick MahomesINTs1213.41.411.67%
Andy DaltonINTs12.513.91.411.20%
Dak PrescottTD Pass21.523.92.411.16%
Cam NewtonTD Pass22.524.72.29.78%
Cam NewtonPassing Yards35003,823.70323.709.25%
Jameis WinstonPassing Yards41004,471.50371.509.06%
Ben RoethlisbergerPassing Yards43004,674.40374.408.71%
Lamar JacksonRush Yards775841.566.58.58%
Nick FolesPassing Yards35003,790.10290.108.29%
Jameis WinstonTD Pass25.527.62.18.24%
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards40004,327.30327.308.18%
Mitch TrubiskyPassing Yards350037842848.11%
Dak PrescottPassing Yards36003,882.60282.607.85%
Philip RiversINTs11.512.40.97.83%
Jameis WinstonINTs15.516.71.27.74%
DeShaun WatsonRush TDs44.30.37.50%
Ben RoethlisbergerTD Pass27.529.527.27%
Andy DaltonTD Pass2324.61.66.96%
Carson WentzINTs11.512.30.86.96%
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards45004,808.00308.006.84%
Mitch TrubiskyTD Pass23.5251.56.38%
Ben RoethlisbergerINTs14.515.40.96.21%
Josh AllenRush Yards575610.535.56.17%
Kyler MurrayTD Pass2021.21.26.00%
DeShaun WatsonPassing Yards39004,130.70230.705.92%
Derek CarrPassing Yards39004,127.50227.505.83%
Kyler MurrayRush Yards475501.826.85.64%
Marcus MariotaPassing Yards31003,273.80173.805.61%
Sam DarnoldPassing Yards35003,691.60191.605.47%
Matthew StaffordINTs1111.60.65.45%
Kyler MurrayPassing Yards35003,689.50189.505.41%
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards39004,100.20200.205.13%
Joe FlaccoPassing Yards32503,416.60166.605.13%
Matt RyanTD Pass28.529.91.44.91%
Mitch TrubiskyINTs12.513.10.64.80%
Baker MayfieldTD Pass29.530.91.44.75%
DeShaun WatsonRush Yards500522.622.64.52%
Dak PrescottRush TDs55.20.24.00%
Josh AllenPassing Yards31003,221.50121.503.92%
Lamar JacksonINTs10.510.90.43.81%
Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards35003,632.30132.303.78%
Carson WentzTD Pass29.530.61.13.73%
Russell WilsonRush Yards350363133.71%
Matt RyanPassing Yards45004,660.60160.603.57%
Philip RiversPassing Yards42504,396.90146.903.46%
Cam NewtonINTs13.513.90.42.96%
Dak PrescottINTs10.510.80.32.86%
Jimmy GaroppoloTD Pass24.525.20.72.86%
Drew BreesPassing Yards42504,368.10118.102.78%
Dak PrescottRush Yards300308.18.12.70%
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards420043061062.52%
Matthew StaffordTD Pass2424.60.62.50%
Jared GoffPassing Yards43004,398.6098.602.29%
Cam NewtonRush Yards500510.910.92.18%
Derek CarrTD Pass23.5240.52.13%
Tom BradyPassing Yards43004,390.4090.402.10%
Sam DarnoldINTs15.515.80.31.94%
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards41004,162.5062.501.52%
Nick FolesTD Pass21.521.80.31.40%
Baker MayfieldINTs14.514.70.21.38%
Josh AllenINTs14.514.70.21.38%
Kyler MurrayINTs14.514.70.21.38%
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards30003,037.2037.201.24%
Josh AllenTD Pass1717.20.21.18%
Russell WilsonINTs9.59.60.11.05%
Philip RiversTD Pass29.529.80.31.02%
Marcus MariotaINTs12.512.60.10.80%
Lamar JacksonTD Pass17.517.60.10.57%
Drew BreesTD Pass30.530.500.00%
Jimmy GaroppoloINTs14.514.500.00%
Marcus MariotaTD Pass18.518.500.00%
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards40003,988.00-12.00-0.30%
Tom BradyTD Pass29.529.4-0.1-0.34%
Jacoby BrissettTD Pass22.522.4-0.1-0.44%
Jared GoffTD Pass30.530.2-0.3-0.98%
Kirk CousinsTD Pass27.527.2-0.3-1.09%
Derek CarrINTs12.512.3-0.2-1.60%
Cam NewtonRush TDs4.54.4-0.1-2.22%
Kirk CousinsINTs12.512.2-0.3-2.40%
DeShaun WatsonTD Pass27.526.7-0.8-2.91%
Russell WilsonPassing Yards37003,589.30-110.70-2.99%
Patrick MahomesTD Pass37.536.3-1.2-3.20%
Jacoby BrissettINTs13.512.8-0.7-5.19%
Russell WilsonTD Pass29.527.8-1.7-5.76%
Sam DarnoldTD Pass24.523-1.5-6.12%
Kyler MurrayRush TDs3.53.2-0.3-8.57%
Aaron RodgersTD Pass32.529.6-2.9-8.92%
Drew BreesINTs108.9-1.1-11.00%

Background

A few quick notes on the cheat sheets.

These lines are from the recently released batch of season-long props at BetOnline. We used this book because it’s among the most accessible for bettors in a variety of jurisdictions. Their lines are surprisingly soft compared to some books whose lines have been out and subject to market forces for months.

Feel free to use the table as a baseline to explore numbers at alternate books.

We compared those betting lines to the “Consensus of Five Sources” projections at Fantasy Pros, which include Mike Clay’s — generally considered the industry standard – as well as CBS Sports, numberFire, FFToday & NFL.com. We wanted to include multiple sources in the hopes of eliminating some of the noise and outliers.

 

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