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The Ultimate WR Cheat Sheet For Season-Long NFL Props & Our 8 Favorite Bets

Every year, I promise myself I’m going to play fewer season-long NFL props and I fail miserably. While tying up a chunk of your bankroll for four months is not ideal, season-long props are just too much fun and too soft.

But there are a lot of them. We’re going to take much of the legwork out of it with these straightforward cheat sheets for every season-long prop line from BetOnline, and we started with the Ultimate RB Cheat Sheet on the weekend.

These tables should be pretty straightforward, but we’ve included some notes at the bottom of the article with more on the methodology and the source of projections.

We’ve also made these tables in a fully sortable for your perusal — you can find them following the heat-map cheat sheets below.

Be sure to check out our other cheat sheets for RB & QB.

Editor’s Note: Our NFL player prop packages are now available in weekly & monthly options. Or buy the full season and save 30% — packages starting at just $59.95 for the full season

Receiving Yards

  • The Sammy Watkins over is the second-best bet on the board in terms of the difference between his projection and betting line. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s the No. 2 WR on the league’s most explosive offense. It’s also a hard one to play considering Watkins hasn’t hit this number in any of his past three seasons while missing an average of 4.5 games a year. I think the over is worth a small play.
  • Second-year WRs breakout out at the highest rate, making the lines for both Michael Gallup and Christian Kirk awfully tempting. Both are locked in as their team’s No. 2 WR and are in great shape to hit their number if healthy.

Receptions

  • The Jarvis Landry line appears way off from his projections, and that makes sense considering the Browns added Odell Beckham. Landry is a beast — he’s third among all WRs in receptions since entering the league, averaging 96.2 per season – but this line is surprisingly high considering he had 81 receptions last year as the de factor No. 1 WR in Cleveland.

Receiving TDs

  • Cooper Kupp should have no problem scoring at least 5 TDs, even if he misses some games. With 1.8 targets per game in the red zone, he’s the Rams preferred WR option when they enter scoring position. He beat this 5 TD line in just eight games last year, so we’ve got plenty of cushion in case of another injury.

  • Emmanuel Sanders has averaged 4.25 TDs over his past four seasons, and it will be a minor miracle if he can hit 6 this year considering he’s coming off that devastating Achilles injury suffered just eight months ago.
  • Tyler Boyd had 7 TDs in 14 games in his breakout season and will play a good chunk of 2018 without A.J. Green. His .50 TD rate in the red zone was fourth best among all WRs with at least 5 RZ targets last year. Sign me up for the over at 5.5.

Official Bets

  • Michael Gallup, Over 600 Yards
  • Christian Kirk, Over 700 Yards
  • Allen Robinson, Over 800 Yards
  • Dante Pettis, Under 750 Yards
  • Jarvis Landry, Under 90.5 Receptions
  • Cooper Kupp, Over 5 TDs
  • Emmanuel Sanders, Under 5 TDs
  • Tyler Boyd, Over 5.5 TDs

The Ultimate WR Cheat Sheet

Here is the WR cheat sheet in full with sortable columns

PlayerProp TypeLineProjectionRaw Difference% Difference
Cooper KuppRec TDs57.22.244.00%
Sammy WatkinsReceiving Yards650880.1230.135.40%
Christian KirkReceiving Yards700855.3155.322.19%
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards11001,335.00235.0021.36%
Christian KirkRec TDs44.80.820.00%
Michael GallupReceiving Yards600714.6114.619.10%
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards11001,305.90205.9018.72%
Sammy WatkinsRec TDs55.90.918.00%
Amari CooperRec TDs6.57.61.116.92%
Mike EvansReceiving Yards12001,392.70192.7016.06%
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards9001,043.10143.1015.90%
Amari CooperReceiving Yards9501,094.80144.8015.24%
Donte MoncriefReceiving Yards6006909015.00%
Allen RobinsonReceiving Yards800919.1119.114.89%
Mohamed SanuRec TDs3.540.514.29%
Marquise GoodwinRec TDs3.540.514.29%
Dante PettisRec TDs55.70.714.00%
Marvin JonesRec TDs5.56.20.712.73%
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards13001,465.20165.2012.71%
Robby AndersonReceiving Yards775873.198.112.66%
Donte MoncriefRec TDs44.50.512.50%
TY HiltonReceiving Yards10001,122.50122.5012.25%
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards9501,064.80114.8012.08%
Robert WoodsRec TDs55.60.612.00%
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards12501,398.20148.2011.86%
Jamison CrowderReceiving Yards600669.769.711.62%
DJ MooreReceiving Yards800891.391.311.41%
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards850946.696.611.36%
Tyler LockettRec TDs6.57.20.710.77%
Julio JonesRec TDs7.58.30.810.67%
Dede WestbrookReceiving Yards725799.874.810.32%
Davante AdamsReceptions95.5105.39.810.26%
JuJu Smith-SchusterRec TDs88.80.810.00%
DeAndre HopkinsReceptions95.51059.59.95%
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards11501,262.90112.909.82%
Tyler BoydReceiving Yards900985.685.69.51%
Tyrell WilliamsReceiving Yards650710.460.49.29%
Kenny GolladayReceiving Yards10001,089.5089.508.95%
Odell BeckhamRec TDs8.59.20.78.24%
Will FullerReceiving Yards750810.860.88.11%
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards750809.959.97.99%
Paul RichardsonReceiving Yards550591.441.47.53%
Corey DavisRec TDs44.30.37.50%
Sterling ShepardReceiving Yards800854.554.56.81%
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards11001,174.6074.606.78%
Paul RichardsonRec TDs33.20.26.67%
Mohamed SanuReceiving Yards700741.341.35.90%
Julio JonesReceptions100.5106.35.85.77%
Tyler BoydRec TDs5.55.80.35.45%
Dante PettisReceiving Yards750790.940.95.45%
Michael ThomasReceptions107.5113.35.85.40%
Marquise GoodwinReceiving Yards550578.828.85.24%
Julian EdelmanReceiving Yards10501,104.0054.005.14%
DeSean JacksonRec TDs44.20.25.00%
Chris GodwinRec TDs66.30.35.00%
Marvin JonesReceiving Yards800839.939.94.99%
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards9751,023.4048.404.96%
Calvin RidleyRec TDs6.56.80.34.62%
Robby AndersonRec TDs6.56.80.34.62%
Anthony MillerRec TDs4.54.70.24.44%
Sterling ShepardRec TDs4.54.70.24.44%
Taylor GabrielReceptions2.52.60.14.00%
Odell BeckhamReceptions85.588.93.43.98%
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards700727.327.33.90%
Stefon DiggsReceptions87.590.83.33.77%
Michael ThomasRec TDs88.30.33.75%
Will FullerRec TDs5.55.70.23.64%
Julio JonesReceiving Yards15001,553.6053.603.57%
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards11001,136.6036.603.33%
Keenan AllenRec TDs6.56.70.23.08%
Michael ThomasReceiving Yards13001,337.5037.502.88%
DeSean JacksonReceiving Yards700720.120.12.87%
Anthony MillerReceiving Yards550563.113.12.38%
Emmanuel SandersReceiving Yards800818.818.82.35%
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceptions102.5104.92.42.34%
Courtland SuttonRec TDs4.54.60.12.22%
Keenan AllenReceptions95.597.522.09%
DeVante ParkerReceiving Yards600611.211.21.87%
Allen RobinsonRec TDs5.55.60.11.82%
Corey DavisReceiving Yards800813.613.61.70%
Kenny GolladayRec TDs66.10.11.67%
Julian EdelmanReceptions90.5921.51.66%
Alshon JefferyRec TDs6.56.60.11.54%
Devin FunchessReceiving Yards500507.67.61.52%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingReceptions675684.29.21.36%
Kenny StillsReceiving Yards725733.38.31.14%
Alshon JefferyReceiving Yards900908.78.70.97%
Adam HumphriesRec TDs3300.00%
Dede WestbrookRec TDs5500.00%
DeVante ParkerRec TDs3300.00%
Jarvis LandryRec TDs5500.00%
Mike EvansRec TDs7.57.500.00%
Stefon DiggsRec TDs7.57.500.00%
TY HiltonRec TDs5.55.500.00%
Odell BeckhamReceiving Yards12501,245.70-4.30-0.34%
Randall CobbReceiving Yards500498-2-0.40%
John BrownReceiving Yards650646-4-0.62%
Adam HumphriesReceiving Yards575570.8-4.2-0.73%
Mike WilliamsReceiving Yards850843.4-6.6-0.78%
Julian EdelmanRec TDs6.56.4-0.1-1.54%
Adam ThielenReceptions92.590.8-1.7-1.84%
Jarvis LandryReceiving Yards875855.8-19.2-2.19%
Jamison CrowderRec TDs43.9-0.1-2.50%
Larry FitzgeraldReceptions70.568.7-1.8-2.55%
Tyreek HillRush Yards100.597.6-2.9-2.89%
Antonio BrownReceptions98.595.6-2.9-2.94%
DeAndre HopkinsRec TDs10.510.1-0.4-3.81%
Zay JonesReceiving Yards550528.5-21.5-3.91%
Curtis SamuelRec TDs54.8-0.2-4.00%
Adam ThielenRec TDs76.7-0.3-4.29%
John BrownRec TDs4.54.3-0.2-4.44%
Michael GallupRec TDs4.54.3-0.2-4.44%
Willie SneadReceiving Yards550524.5-25.5-4.64%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingRec TDs43.8-0.2-5.00%
Devin FunchessRec TDs43.8-0.2-5.00%
Larry FitzgeraldRec TDs5.55.2-0.3-5.45%
Larry FitzgeraldReceiving Yards800756.1-43.9-5.49%
Antonio BrownReceiving Yards13001,226.20-73.80-5.68%
Brandin CooksRec TDs6.56.1-0.4-6.15%
DJ MooreRec TDs4.54.2-0.3-6.67%
Josh DocstonRec TDs32.8-0.2-6.67%
N'Keal HarryRec TDs32.8-0.2-6.67%
TY HiltonReceptions80.572.5-8-9.94%
Josh DocstonReceiving Yards550493.1-56.9-10.35%
Mike WilliamsRec TDs8.57.6-0.9-10.59%
Davante AdamsRec TDs1210.7-1.3-10.83%
Kenny StillsRec TDs5.54.9-0.6-10.91%
John RossRec TDs3.53.1-0.4-11.43%
N'Keal HarryReceiving Yards450393.9-56.1-12.47%
John RossReceiving Yards350306.1-43.9-12.54%
Emmanuel SandersRec TDs54.3-0.7-14.00%
Tyrell WilliamsRec TDs4.53.8-0.7-15.56%
Willie SneadRec TDs32.5-0.5-16.67%
Nelson AgholorReceiving Yards550457.1-92.9-16.89%
Zay JonesRec TDs54.1-0.9-18.00%
Jarvis LandryReceptions90.572.4-18.1-20.00%
Randall CobbRec TDs3.52.7-0.8-22.86%
Nelson AgholorRec TDs4.53-1.5-33.33%

Background

A few quick notes on the cheat sheets.

These lines are from the recently released batch of season-long props at BetOnline. We used this book because it’s among the most accessible for bettors in a variety of jurisdictions. Their lines are surprisingly soft compared to some books whose lines have been out and subject to market forces for months.

Feel free to use the table as a baseline to explore numbers at alternate books.

We compared those betting lines to the “Consensus of Five Sources” projections at Fantasy Pros, which include Mike Clay’s — generally considered the industry standard – as well as CBS Sports, numberFire, FFToday & NFL.com. We wanted to include multiple sources in the hopes of eliminating some of the noise and outliers.

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