Football is back, and we’re diving into some best Monkey Knife Fight props for Packers vs Bears on the Thursday kickoff to the 2019 NFL season.
The games at MKF are a different twist on props. They’ve added tons of options since last season, including over/under on fantasy points. I’ll be breaking down spots that offer value throughout the regular season and playoffs.
Also be sure to check back here, as we’ll be updating this piece with any changes and new plays ahead of TNF kickoff.
MKF is offering a 100% deposit bonus of up to $500 — 100% for new users and 50% for existing. They’re also giving all players everyone who makes a deposit a free $5 contest for Thursday Night. If you don’t win, they’ll refund the loss up to $5 in MKF dollars.
Click on the banner or here to join or deposit.
Packers vs Bears Monkey Knife Fight Props
Davante Adams (-1.5) vs Allen Robinson (+1.5), Receptions
The Pick: Adams -1.5 Receptions
This is a Rapidfire card and should be the very first game type you see.
Simply pick the players that will win the matchup vs the spread.
We don’t know how this Green Bay offense will look under new head coach Matt Lafleur, and the projections for the QB matchup here is dead-on, leaving me with no lean either way.
What we do know, however, is that Aaron Rodgers favorite target is Adams. The Packers stud WR was second among all WRs with 169 targets last year, commanding a 27% target share — fourth-best in the league. Rodgers says he wants to feed Adams even more this year, which makes sense considering the lack of star power behind the depth chart behind him.
- 2018 Average: 7.4 receptions per game
- Projection: 6.7 receptions
- 2018 Average: 4.6 receptions per game
- Projection: 4.1 receptions
With Adams vs Robinson, we have a difference of 2.8 receptions in their average receptions and a difference of 2.6 receptions on their projection. While we do expect to see Robinson become a bigger part of the Bears offense this year, coach Matt Nagy leans towards spreading the ball around — Robinson’s target market share last year was just 19%.
The line is only set at Adams -1.5, giving us a solid edge on this MKF prop.
Editor’s Note: We hope you enjoy this free content. Our full NFL player prop packages are now available in weekly & monthly options — packages starting at just $59.95 for the full season.
While I don’t have a lean on the QB part of this card, keep an eye out for this matchup, which can be used on the other cards you like. It might even end up with a pairing other than QBs, as MKF alternates their prop cards throughout the week.
I will be updating with more +EV plays for Thursday Night.
Update (Thursday Morning)
Aaron Jones Under 14.5 PPR Fantasy Points
David Montgomery Under 12.5 PPR Fantasy Points
These also come from the Rapid Fire game.
The biggest edge here is the Jones under, and earlier this week we analyzed why we’re fading him in a head to head vs Montmgery. The Bears had both the top rushing and overall defense last season, allowing an average of 11.6 fantasy points to RBs last year in PPR. Here are Jones’ three career games against Chicago:
- 13-49 (3.77 YPC)
- 3-12 (4.0 YPC)
- 4-8 (PC)
As for Montgomery, there are too many unknowns for me to have more than a lean on the under, which hit at nearly 57% for home RB props. Will he fill the vacant Jordan Howard role? How many touches will ex-Seahawk Mike Davis get? Tarik Cohen, who excels as a pass-catcher, is still there too.
- 2018 average: 14.29 Fantasy Points (PPR)
- Projection: 11.1
- Bears top defense
- Bad YPC and FPPG against CHI
- Road RB prop unders hit at 59.24%
- Rookie, no average
- Projection: 12.1
- Unknown usage and three-headed backfield
- Home RB prop unders hit 56.96%
That is more of a fade of Jones on the road against an elite defense. Montgomery has a -33% z-score, a historically accurate predictor of rookie RB success, from Fantasy Pros. It is the second-lowest score since its inception in 2015. He is likely a better pass catcher than Howard, and that worries me.
Green Bay was middle-of-the-pack in rushing defense with a PFF grade of 77.5 last season. Though Howard’s season average was 11.25 FPPG, he was able to surpass this number of 12.5 in both games against GB last year. The bottom line is that I’m generally going to prefer unders. When you give me a rookie RB in his first start, sharing touches with two skilled veterans, I lean under.
As always, keep an eye out for this Jones prop on other MKF cards, as it is one of the biggest values I see.
Aaron Rodgers Under 21.5 PPR Fantasy Points
Mitchell Trubisky Under 20.5 PPR Fantasy Points
Finally, a card where there is clear value on both props.
The total for this game is set fairly low at 46.5 points. In Bears’ home games last year, the average total points scored was 44. In these teams’ last two matchups, they put up 47 points in GB and 41 in CHI. The projections and averages are both lower than the prop as well.
- Projection: 18.03 fantasy points
- 2018 average: 19.16 fantasy points
- Bears 95.7 PFF coverage grade in 2018
- Bears second-ranked pass offense
- Projection: 17.83 fantasy points
- 2018 average: 18.22 fantasy points
- 12.1 points or less in five of his final seven games
Rodgers and previous head coach, Mike McCarthy, were constantly at odds over the playbook and play-calling. The Packers brought in Matt LaFleur as the new head coach, but we don’t know how this will impact the offense. LaFleur ran the ball on 48.4% of plays (second-most) when he was with the Tennessee Titans last season, so the Packers’ passing frequency could very well decrease.
When Rodgers battled through an injury to put up 24.9 fantasy points in week one vs the Bears last year, he did so at home. In week 15 @CHI, he needed 42 attempts to reach only 11.5 fantasy points.
I don’t care how manly his new mustache is; I’m hammering the under.
Trubisky started off 2018 slowly with under 15 FP in each of his first three games. Once he got comfortable with the system, he helped fantasy owners win big, averaging 27.67 FPPG. Defenses may have clued in though — he failed to eclipse 19 FP from week 11 on, including week 15 against the Packers where he topped out at 19 points.
I’m more confident in the Rodgers under, but the total, recent history, and projections give me plenty of reasons to like this card.