We’re slamming down our best NBA player props for Friday night (11/8), as we examine the expanded role for the Warriors’ D’Angelo Russell, plus a look at Kyle Lowry.
Russell is my favorite spot of the night, as I believe the books have yet to fully adjust for the reality of his new role in the Bay area. I’ll break that NBA player prop down before explaining why we’re getting back aboard the Lowry train again.
The article card by my cohort went 2-2 last night, so let’s get back to work and make a few units.
NBA Player Props for Friday, November 8th
Warriors Guard D’Angelo Russell
O24.5 Points (-108 @ Pinnacle)
Note: I locked this in at O23.5 (-125 @ PropBuilder), but the juice had moved considerably by the time of publishing. Shop around — I still like O23.5 at around -130, but O24.5 is widely accessible and more than playable.
In the absence of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, D’Angelo Russell is the clear No. 1 option to produce points in the Warriors offense. Russell has proven time and again – with multiple teams, playing in multiple offenses – that he’s a scoring threat from anywhere on the court.
Last Man Standing
By being the only healthy top tier guard remaining, Russell doesn’t have to split minutes or court time with other guards. He plays an average of 30 minutes per game, but with Curry out, his usage will increase.
The fourth-year Ohio State product has a usage rate of 27.7%, which is the third highest it has been in the last five years.
With Curry was absent from the lineup last game, Russell had 11 more shots than his next-closest teammate.
Based on pure volume alone, it’s feasible Russell smashes this over tonight. It’s also worth mentioning that he scored 30 points in that game and had opportunities to push that number much higher.
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Russell has proven that he can and will shoot the three ball with consistency; this season he is currently averaging seven 3PA per game with a success rate of 31.4%.
Tonight’s matchup looks favorable as the Timberwolves are allowing the highest 3P% to opposing guards.
As the new No. 1 option, Russell is poised to have a monster game in his first game back from injury. He won’t have to compete for minutes or shots and should look to fire from behind the 3 point line at will.
This is a great spot to take advantage of as I can see his point total rising in the near future.
Raptors Guard Kyle Lowry
O33.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-114 @ Prop Builder)
Kyle Lowry has surpassed his point total of 20.5 in his last five of seven, dynamically driving this Raptors offense in the absence of Kawhi Leonard. He’s the clear leader of this Toronto team and provides a nice opportunity for bettors in tonight’s matchup.
Lowry is averaging 24 PPG, 4.6 REB, and 6.7 AST (35.3 PRA) to date. We cashed his PRA a few nights ago, and we’re going back to the well again.
He’s playing almost 40 MPG, ranking him at the top of the roster, with a usage rating of 23.4% that gives him a shot at maintaining such numbers for the long haul.
He also rebounds at a decent rate, particularly for a point guard. His offensive and defensive rebounding are both in the double digits at 13.8% and 12.5%, respectively.
Pelicans Defensive Woes
The Pelicans are not a good defensive team, allowing the most PPG overall and the third-most to opposition point guards. The point total for this game is set at 233 which is the highest over/under on tonight’s slate.
Bookmakers see this is a high-paced affair with points aplenty.
Lowry doesn’t take many nights off and is the hardest working player on the roster most nights. When betting Overs, in particular, I feel like this is worth mentioning, as it increases confidence we get burned by one of those mailed-in performances that tend to pop up in the NBA.