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NBA Player Props for Tuesday (11/12): A Double Dip on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

We’re taking a look at two NBA player props with potential value on this big Tuesday (11/12) hoops slate.

I’m double-dipping on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s exploded onto the NBA scene in his second season after coming over from the Clippers and taken over the mantle in Oklahoma City.

In addition to a big boost in minutes early on in this season, we’ll look to take advantage of his much-improved range from the three-point line, as well.

Tuesday’s NBA player props slate is so loaded that we’ve got two NBA props article tonight — check out my cohort’s piece for more picks here.

I’m looking to build on my 1-1 card the last time out, so let’s jump right in.

NBA Player Props for Tuesday (11/12)

Thunder Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Over 1.5 3s Made (+115 @ 5 Dimes)

&

Over 28.5 Pts + Rebs + Assist (-114 @ Prop Builder)

With Russell Westbrook now in Houston, Alexander has taken over as the driving force behind the Thunder. In his last two games, he’s scored an average of 27 points, 4 assists and 8 rebounds on 36 minutes per game.

These are the high-volume, high-minute numbers we like to see when betting player total overs.

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On Fire From Downton

Alexander is shooting 41% from three while averaging 4.5 attempts per game. Unlike his previous season with the Clippers, he’s in a role that allows him to handle the ball more and put up more shots.

Indiana’s defense against the three is less than spectacular, as they allow opponents to shoot 37% from the three-point line, sixth-worst.

Here are Alexander’s three-point looks on the year:

G 3P 3PA 3P%
1 3 7 0.429
2 2 4 0.5
3 1 5 0.2
4 2 6 0.333
5 0 2 0
6 3 5 0.6
7 3 5 0.6
8 0 1 0
9 0 3 0
10 4 6 0.667

I think we’re getting a discount for those two goose eggs in the last three games, but the value at +115 for a guy launching that many threes per game is too good to resist.

Increased Usage
  • Alexander’s Usage increased from 18.2% in the 2018-19 season to a current usage rate of 25.1%.
  • That increase of 7% puts him in the top 20% of usage rate increases, year over year, among all NBA players.
  • It’s a further indicator that Alexander has truly role as the No. 1 scoring option for this new-era Thunder team.

Conclusion

Bookmakers have not yet adjusted to Alexander’s ability to score from three.

He’s eclipsed his Over/Under on three-pointers six of 10 games this year, making it a good spot for prop bettors to take advantage of.

His usage rating and volume of shot attempts combine to produce a versatile, workhorse type scorer, exactly the kind of over spot I’m looking to bet.

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