- Our favorite MLB strikeout props for Monday (3/8) come from the 8:40 ET Dodgers @ Padres matchup
- We’ll tell you how to play the O/U line of 5.5 strikeouts for Padres RHP Chris Paddack
- Paddack has posted an average of 5 K’s in 5.5 IP during his first two outings
Update at 3:14 EST: This line has moved all the way to -167 on the Prop Builder since we posted it this morning, but I just discovered it at an even better price at one shop — currently -105 at Bovada.
Our article plays are 3-1 on the year after taking our first L last week.
We’ve got some NBA props on tap for tonight too — check them out here.
Let’s jump in.
Padres RHP Chris Paddack
Under 5.5Ks (-114 @ Prop Builder)
Paddack has had slightly mixed results through two starts:
- vs ARI: 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks
- vs SFG: 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks
He gets his toughest test tonight against a Dodgers lineup that destroys RHP while maintaining a disciplined swinging-strike rate and keeping their strikeouts to a minimum.
- Their 19.9% kRate against RHP is best of any team’s matchup today
- Same goes for their wOBA, best on the slate at a whopping .341
- ISO is tops as well for this slate at .203
That kind of power, combined with, a stingy kRate, is going to make it tough for Paddack to stack up big K numbers against LA.
Adding to Paddack’s potential woes, the Dodgers practice solid discipline at the plate with Sw/Str % of 20.5% last year.
This year, they have just 81 total strikeouts through 10 games, second-best in the majors.
Over his last 20 starts, and specifically his last 10, Paddack’s ERA surged well above his K%.
All of these indicators point to signs of pitcher regression, especially in difficult matchups.
All quantitative and qualitative analyses point towards his under with a semi-high line of 5.5 and a lineup that mashes against RHP.
I’d play this line to -125.
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