- Our best MLB strikeout props come from Friday’s slate (8/21) as Max Fried faces the Phillies at 7:10 ET
- His line is set at 5.0 strikeouts on the Prop Builder — is it too low for the NL Cy Young contender?
- Overall, out MLB strikeout props are 44-23 (66%) for +20.32 Units on the year — join us here to get full daily slates of MLB strikeout props
Rare is the day where you’ll find us betting overs on MLB strikeout props, and in the interest of full disclosure, here’s the reason why:
We’ve been hitting unders at a 74% clip, while overs have been an anchor on an otherwise pristine record.
But watching these strikeout markets the last few days, it’s become clear that books are starting to adjust and set lines lower across the board — they’re begging us to take some overs. It’s not something we’ve done much of in racking up a 5-1 record on free article plays, but we’re doing it today.
I pick over spots carefully, but I believe this is one that profits in the long run. Let’s ride.
MORE PROPS: Best NBA props for Friday’s slate, starring Joel Embiid.
MLB Strikeout Props for Friday (8/21)
Braves LHP Max Fried
Over 5 Strikeouts (-114 @ Prop Builder)
Through five starts, Fried is 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 28 strikeouts (8.69 K/9) and is in the thick of the Cy Young conversation.
Per baseball savant, he ranks in the top 20th percentile in multiple categories in 2020, shining particularly bright in exit velocity.
He also ranks in the top 95th percentile in average distance of ball travel with 91.7 feet.
Fried’s 60% kRate is only a bit above average so far, but his 22.2% swinging-strike rate (our best predictor of future strikeouts) ranks among baseball’s elite K artists — tied with Robbie Ray and James Paxton, and just behind Trevor Bauer (22.8%) and Clayton Kershaw (22.9%) in 2020.
When I’m looking for Overs, I want:
- Good-to-great kRates
- An abundance of confidence that the pitcher will have a long, quality outing
Fried fits the bill and has only gone under 5 strikeouts in one game so far, with totals of 5, 7, 3, 6, 7.
He faced Philly two starts ago, pitching 5.0 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball while striking out six.
The Phil’s offense has been among the best in baseball in the interim, but more swinging means more strikeouts — Philadelphia has struck out 32.3% of the time in the last three games, second-worst in the majors.
Projections have Fried hitting 5.3 strikeouts on a little under 6 innings pitched. We push here a lot at 5, but he goes over that number more than under in the long run.
I’d play it down to -125 at this line, and if you only have access to a line of O4.5, I’d pay up to -150.