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Best Props for Giants Eagles: A Passing Grade on Daniel Jones

  • Giants QB Daniel Jones goes under the spotlight as we look at the best props for Giants Eagles on Thursday Night Football
  • We’ll examine Jones’ passing yardage prop of O/U 232.5 yards
  • The Eagles (1-4-1) host the Giants (1-5) as 4.5-point favorites in a game with a 45.5 point total

Our top props for Giants Eagles takes a stance on Jones, who’s regressed in his sophomore season, showing declines in completion percentage (62% in 2019; 61% in 2020), Yards/Attempt (6.6 to 6.1), QBR (87.7 to 71), and TD:INT ratio (2:1 to 1:2).

His passing yards per game has dipped to 204 after hitting 232 as a rookie, and we’re not expecting him to have much of a bounce-back tonight on a short week.

As for our results, we’re hitting 59.9% with a 13.9% ROI through six weeks. Join us here to get weekly +EV NFL player prop slates alerted to your device.

Best Props for Giants Eagles

Giants QB Daniel Jones

Under 232.5 Passing Yards (-112 DraftKings)

Jones ranks 22nd in passing yards despite throwing the 11th-most attempts so far. Through 19 career games, he’s now averaging 223.7 passing yards.

A picture of inefficiency, his:

  • QB Rating of 71 ranks 42nd at the position
  • Completion percentage of 61% ranks 39th
  • Yards/Att of 6.1 ranks 38th

It’s added up to a lot of profit in the prop market… for under bettors. Not many passers have managed to underperform their already-meager expectations quite like Jones.

Through six weeks, his average Passing Yards O/U is 247.7, but his average actual result is 203.8.  He’s now 1-5 to the under on his yardage prop, dropping five-straight.

Week Player Opp Line Actual Result
Week 6 Daniel Jones WAS 242.5 112 Under
Week 5 Daniel Jones DAL 265.5 222 Under
Week 4 Daniel Jones LAR 247.5 190 Under
Week 3 Daniel Jones SF 239.5 179 Under
Week 2 Daniel Jones CHI 245.5 241 Under
Week 1 Daniel Jones PIT 239.5 279 Over

Volume is a concern for Jones. After hitting 40 and 41 pass attempts in his first two games, he’s averaging 30 attempts over his last four.

The Giants now rank ninth-last in total pass attempts with 33.5/game, and unless Philadelphia’s shorthanded offense can run up the score a little, Jones will likely stay in the 35-range tonight.

At a career YPA of 6.4, that puts him at 224 yards, which is also right about where projections have him.

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The Matchup

The Eagles aren’t nearly as banged up on defense as they are on offense, and despite being a pass-funnel defense, they’re still allowing the 12th-fewest passing yards per game (229.7).

That’s in part because their games have been slow-paced and ugly, which has helped them to a solid record when it comes to keeping opposing QBs under their prop totals.

They’re 5-1 to the under in defending Passing Yard props, with only a volume-fueled Joe Burrow hitting his over.

Player Bet Type Line Actual Week Result
Lamar Jackson Passing Yards 225.5 186 Week 6 Under
Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards 270.5 229 Week 5 Under
Nick Mullens Passing Yards 268.5 200 Week 4 Under
Joe Burrow Passing Yards 260.5 312 Week 3 Over
Jared Goff Passing Yards 272.5 267 Week 2 Under
Dwayne Haskins Passing Yards 222.5 178 Week 1 Under

Don’t expect much volume or pace tonight, either.

These teams combine for an average of 64 plays per game, which is the second-lowest total of any game this week. 

Conclusion

With Jones’ most dangerous downfield weapon Darius Slayton dealing with a nagging foot injury, on top of a tough matchup with Darius Slay, this is a tough spot for Jones to exceed passing expectations.

I’d play the yardage line down to 227.5, and at this current line, would pay as much as -130. 

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